MeritValue

Trinity Capital Inc.

TRINdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Trinity Capital Inc. earns about 12% on equity, but has diluted owners by 136% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.6M1$138.8M2$174.8M3$226.7M3$279.5M3
Net income$132.3M4−$30.4M5$76.9M6$115.6M6$135.6M6
Operating cash flow−$241.7M7−$235.7M8−$96.3M9−$316.9M9−$535.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$466M10$620M10$645.5M10$888M10$1.31B10
Cash & equivalents$31.7M11$10.6M12$4.76M13$9.63M13$19.1M13
Diluted shares29.3M35.2M42.7M56.7M69.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$157.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.57
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$188.47

10 shares is a claim on $157.9 of net worth that earned you $19.57 last year, against $188.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 30%FY22 -7%FY23 13%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned an average 12% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+136% shares · 5y

Share count is up 136% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 180% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$17.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$115.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026865 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027341 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068600 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026865 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027341 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068600 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026865 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027341 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068600 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068600 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026865 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027341 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-068600 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)