MeritValue

LendingTree, Inc.

TREEdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

LendingTree, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.63 and $33.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.1B1$985M2$672.5M3$900.2M3$1.12B3
Net income$69.1M4−$188M5−$122.4M6−$41.7M6$151.3M6
Operating cash flow$131.3M7$43M8$67.6M9$62.3M9$73.1M9
Capital expenditure$35.1M10$11.4M11$12.5M12$11.2M12$12.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.2M7$31.5M8$55M9$51M9$60.7M9
Total debt$644.2M13$816M14$528.7M13$469.1M15$391.6M15
Cash & equivalents$251.2M16$298.8M17$112.1M18$106.6M19$81.1M19
Diluted shares13.7M12.8M12.9M13.3M14.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$203.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$107.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$278.5

10 shares is a claim on $203.95 of net worth that earned you $107.6 and generated $43.15 of cash last year, against $278.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 -3%FY23 -15%FY24 -6%FY25 4%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.63 and $33.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$55M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$55M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$70.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.84
Base0.0%$33.84
Bull5.0%$47.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434621-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434621-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016084 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434621-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434621-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434621-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434621-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434621-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434621-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016084 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434621-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434621-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016084 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434621-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434621-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434621-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)