TEJON RANCH CO

TRCdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

TEJON RANCH CO earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	$79.2M¹	$44.7M²	$41.9M²	$49.6M²
Net income	$5.35M³	$15.8M⁴	$3.27M⁵	$2.69M⁵	$75,000⁵
Operating cash flow	$2.82M⁶	$8.53M⁷	$13.7M⁸	$14.3M⁸	$6.13M⁸
Capital expenditure	$20.9M⁹	$22.6M¹⁰	$21.3M¹⁰	$57.2M¹⁰	—
Free cash flow (derived)	−$18.1M⁶	−$14.1M⁷	−$7.67M⁸	−$42.9M⁸	—
Total debt	$109.9M¹¹	$100.1M¹²	$47.9M¹²	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$36.2M¹³	$39.1M¹⁴	$31.9M¹⁵	$39.3M¹⁵	$9.52M¹⁵
Diluted shares	26.4M	26.7M	26.7M	26.8M	26.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$176.33

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$0.03

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $176.33 of net worth that earned you $0.03 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

1% avg · 5y

FY21 1%FY22 3%FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 0%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

$1.26

assumptions (8)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
normalizedEarnings$3.27M
growthAssumed0.0%

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000096869-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019685 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000096869-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000096869-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019685 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000096869-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000096869-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019685 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000096869-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000096869-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000096869-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000096869-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000096869-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000096869-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019685 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)