MeritValue

TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC

TRdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.34 and $80.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$570.8M1$687M2$769.4M3$723.2M3$732.5M3
Net income$65.3M4$75.9M5$91.9M6$86.8M6$100.1M6
Operating cash flow$85.3M7$72.1M8$94.6M9$138.9M9$130.6M9
Capital expenditure$31.4M10$23.4M11$26.8M12$18M12$34.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.9M7$48.7M8$67.8M9$120.9M9$96.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$105.8M13$53.3M14$75.9M15$138.8M16$127.2M16
Diluted shares71.5M72.9M71.9M73.4M72.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$129.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.22
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $129.07 of net worth that earned you $13.72 and generated $13.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 10%FY23 12%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.34 and $80.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$80.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$96.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$44.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$96.4M
Earnings Power Value
$12.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$86.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $44.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.63
Base20.0%$44.83
Bull20.0%$44.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001926 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021621 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001926 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021621 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001926 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021621 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001926 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021621 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003175 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001926 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021621 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)