MeritValue

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.

TPVGdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. earns about 5% on equity, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$76.6M1−$20.1M2−$39.8M3$32M3$49.2M3
Operating cash flow−$144.7M4−$100.9M5$106.1M6$152.9M6−$57M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$465.3M7$562.9M8$605.2M9$394.9M10$464.4M10
Cash & equivalents$51.3M11$51.5M12$153.3M13$45.9M13$20.4M13
Diluted shares30.9M32.7M35.7M39.1M40.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$87.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.22
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$115.31

10 shares is a claim on $87.8 of net worth that earned you $12.22 last year, against $115.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
5% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 -5%FY23 -11%FY24 9%FY25 14%

It earned an average 5% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$8.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$32M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580345-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580345-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580345-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580345-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580345-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580345-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580345-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580345-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580345-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001580345-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001580345-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001580345-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001580345-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)