MeritValue

Tempest Therapeutics, Inc.

TPSTdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Tempest Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -200% on equity, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$28.3M1−$35.7M2−$29.5M3−$41.8M4−$26.3M4
Operating cash flow−$26M5−$31.1M6−$27.4M7−$33M8−$26.8M8
Capital expenditure$135,0009$562,00010$170,00011$435,00012$012
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.1M5−$31.6M6−$27.5M7−$33.5M8−$26.8M8
Total debt$15.1M13$20.8M14$21M15$12.8M15$016
Cash & equivalents$51.8M17$31.2M18$39.2M19$30.3M20$7.71M20
Diluted shares3.8M11.5M15.4M2.1M4.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$63.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$64.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $16.07 of net worth that earned you −$63.29 and generated −$64.63 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-200% avg · 5y
FY21 -78%FY22 -197%FY23 -110%FY24 -219%FY25 -394%

It earned an average -200% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009237 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033555 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046144 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130490 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009237 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033555 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046144 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130490 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009237 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033555 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046144 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130490 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009237 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033555 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046144 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130490 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009237 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033555 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046144 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130490 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)