MeritValue

TAPESTRY, INC.

TPRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TAPESTRY, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.85 and $156.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.75B1$6.68B2$6.66B3$6.67B3$7.01B3
Net income$834.2M4$856.3M5$936M6$816M6$183.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.32B7$853.2M8$975.2M9$1.26B9$1.22B9
Capital expenditure$116M10$93.9M11$184.2M12$108.9M12$122.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.21B7$759.3M8$791M9$1.15B9$1.09B9
Total debt$3.19B13$3.36B14$3.3B15$14.2B16$4.79B16
Cash & equivalents$2.01B17$789.8M18$726.1M19$6.14B20$1.1B20
Diluted shares283.0M270.1M241.3M233.2M222.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$215.33

10 shares is a claim on $38.55 of net worth that earned you $8.23 and generated $49.16 of cash last year, against $215.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 19%FY23 21%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 50% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.85 and $156.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$156.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$1.09B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$104.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$1.09B
Earnings Power Value
$38.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$834.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $104.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.65
Base12.9%$104.73
Bull17.9%$131.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001116132-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001116132-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001116132-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001116132-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001116132-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001116132-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001116132-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001116132-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001116132-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001116132-23-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001116132-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001116132-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001116132-22-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001116132-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001116132-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001116132-25-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001116132-22-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001116132-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001116132-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001116132-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)