Texas Pacific Land Corp
TPLdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Texas Pacific Land Corp earns about 103% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 790% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $66.05 and $71.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $451M1 | $667.4M2 | $631.6M3 | $705.8M3 | $798.2M3 |
| Net income | $270M4 | $446.4M5 | $405.6M6 | $454M6 | $481.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $265.2M7 | $447.1M8 | $418.3M9 | $490.7M9 | $545.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $16.4M10 | $19M10 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $248.7M7 | $428.2M8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $428.2M11 | $510.8M12 | $725.2M13 | $369.8M14 | $144.8M14 |
| Diluted shares | 7.8M | 23.2M | 69.2M | 69.1M | 69.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $211.35 of net worth that earned you $69.74 last year.
It earned about 103% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 790% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $66.05 and $71.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$248.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$248.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$446.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $53.59 |
| Base | 5.0% | $66.05 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $80.96 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001811074-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001811074-25-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811074-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001811074-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001811074-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811074-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001811074-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001811074-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811074-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001811074-23-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001811074-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001811074-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811074-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001811074-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)