MeritValue

TPI COMPOSITES, INC

TPICQdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TPI COMPOSITES, INC earns about -130% on equity, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.47B1$918.5M2$863.9M2$890M2$918.5M2
Net income−$159.5M3−$65.3M4−$201.8M5−$240.7M5−$340.8M5
Operating cash flow−$25.5M6−$62.3M7−$81M8$12.5M8−$126.4M8
Capital expenditure$37.1M9$18.8M10$36.1M11$26.2M11$14.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$62.6M6−$81.1M7−$117.1M8−$13.7M8−$140.9M8
Total debt$74.6M12$61.2M13$606.1M14$705.2M15—
Cash & equivalents$216.2M16$130.6M17$119.9M17$143.3M17$13.9M17
Diluted shares37.4M42.0M42.7M47.5M48.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$139.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$70.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$29.03
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$139.97 of net worth that earned you −$70.2 and generated −$29.03 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-130% avg · 5y
FY21 -131%FY22 -129%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -130% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 845% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018800 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124194 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018800 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024274 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124194 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018800 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024274 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124194 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018800 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024274 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124194 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002105 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003810 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018800 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024274 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024274 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124194 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)