MeritValue

TPG Inc.

TPGdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

TPG Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$1.25B1$1.53B2$2.09B2$2.42B2
Net income$6.22M3$92.4M4$80.1M5$23.5M5$184.6M5
Operating cash flow—$1.38B6$720.5M7$532.1M7$1.03B7
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$444.6M8$945.1M9$1.28B10$1.72B10
Cash & equivalents—$1.11B11$665.2M12$808M12$826.1M12
Diluted shares—308.9M317.9M364.7M374.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$110.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.93
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$46.04

10 shares is a claim on $110.56 of net worth that earned you $4.93 last year, against $46.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY22 —FY23 2%FY24 1%FY25 14%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 287% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$80.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880661-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880661-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-18 · accession 0001880661-23-000017 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880661-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880661-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880661-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880661-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880661-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880661-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001880661-26-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880661-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880661-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)