MeritValue

Turning Point Brands, Inc.

TPBdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Turning Point Brands, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.02 and $160.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$445.5M1$321.2M2$325.1M3$360.7M3$463.1M3
Net income$52.1M4$11.6M5$38.5M6$39.8M6$58.2M6
Operating cash flow$68.2M7$30.3M8$66.9M9$67.1M9$57.4M9
Capital expenditure$6.16M10$7.83M11$5.71M12$4.62M12$13.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$62.1M7$22.4M8$61.2M9$62.4M9$43.8M9
Total debt$414.2M13$406.8M14$365.4M15$248.6M16$293.6M16
Cash & equivalents$128.3M17$106.4M18$117.9M18$48.9M18$222.8M18
Diluted shares22.4M18.1M20.5M19.4M18.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$198.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$156.76

10 shares is a claim on $198.6 of net worth that earned you $31.05 and generated $23.41 of cash last year, against $156.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 15%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.02 and $160.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$160.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.7%
  • fcfBase$61.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$93.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.7%
  • fcfBase$61.2M
Earnings Power Value
$22.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$39.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $93.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.88
Base17.7%$93.5
Bull20.0%$102.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010142 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006480 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006405 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010142 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006480 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006405 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006480 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006405 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006480 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006405 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011882 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010142 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006480 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006405 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006480 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006405 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)