MeritValue

Theriva Biologics, Inc.

TOVXdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Theriva Biologics, Inc. earns about -253% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$14.3M1−$19.7M2−$18.3M2−$25.7M3−$23.7M3
Operating cash flow−$12.9M4−$19.1M5−$19M6−$16.9M7−$16.7M7
Capital expenditure$14,0008$116,0009$202,00010$1,00011$35,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$12.9M4−$19.2M5−$19.2M6−$16.9M7−$16.7M7
Total debt—$278,00012$225,00013$92,00014$1.67M14
Cash & equivalents$67.3M15$41.8M16$23.2M17$11.6M18$13.1M18
Diluted shares12.2M15.3M644,2821.3M12.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.38

10 shares is a claim on $12.67 of net worth that earned you −$19.55 and generated −$13.76 of cash last year, against $1.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-253% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -162%FY23 -113%FY24 -268%FY25 -468%

It earned an average -253% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 501% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000428 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000293 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026767 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000428 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000293 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000285 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026767 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000428 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000293 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000285 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026767 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000293 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000285 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026767 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000428 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000293 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000285 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026767 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)