Tuniu Corp
TOURdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on fileTuniu Corp earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.69 and $0.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $66.9M1 | $26.6M2 | $62.2M3 | $70.4M4 | $82.6M5 |
| Net income | −$19.1M6 | −$28M7 | −$14M8 | $10.6M9 | $4.45M10 |
| Operating cash flow | −$35.5M11 | −$20.7M12 | $32.8M13 | $13.2M14 | −$15.6M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.31M16 | $935,00017 | $1.38M18 | $1.62M19 | $1.02M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$37.8M11 | −$21.7M12 | $31.4M13 | $11.6M14 | −$16.6M15 |
| Total debt | $3.82M21 | $2.82M22 | $2.49M23 | $5,00024 | $5,00025 |
| Cash & equivalents | $54.8M26 | $22.3M27 | $53.4M28 | $63.7M29 | $29.6M30 |
| Diluted shares | 370.9M | 371.2M | 371.5M | 363.7M | 343.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $4.3 of net worth that earned you $0.13 and generated −$0.48 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.
It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.69 and $0.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$11.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$11.6M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.57 |
| Base | 5.0% | $0.69 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $0.82 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001084 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
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- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000777 (ShortTermBorrowings)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
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