Toast, Inc.
TOSTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileToast, Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 109% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.18 and $11.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.71B1 | $2.73B2 | $3.87B3 | $4.96B3 | $6.15B3 |
| Net income | −$487M4 | −$275M5 | −$246M6 | $19M6 | $342M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2M7 | −$156M8 | $135M9 | $360M9 | $661M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $12M10 | $16M10 | $42M11 | $54M11 | $53M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$10M7 | −$172M8 | $93M9 | $306M9 | $608M9 |
| Total debt | $012 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $809M13 | $547M14 | $605M15 | $903M15 | $1.35B15 |
| Diluted shares | 290.0M | 512.0M | 533.0M | 591.0M | 607.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $34.99 of net worth that earned you $5.63 and generated $10.02 of cash last year.
It earned about -28% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 109% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.18 and $11.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$306M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$306M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $9.43 |
| Base | 5.0% | $11.18 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $13.26 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650164-24-000084 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650164-25-000072 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650164-26-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650164-24-000084 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650164-25-000072 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650164-26-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650164-24-000084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650164-25-000072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650164-26-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650164-23-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650164-26-000057 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650164-22-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650164-24-000084 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650164-25-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650164-26-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)