MeritValue

TOP SHIPS INC.

TOPSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TOP SHIPS INC. earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 2687% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$56.4M1$80.7M2——$80.4M3
Net income$8.62M4$18.9M5$6.07M6$5.03M6$3.09M6
Operating cash flow$16.1M7$33.4M8$28.9M9$17.3M9$26.4M9
Capital expenditure$010————
Free cash flow (derived)$16.1M7————
Total debt$194.7M11$467.4M12$481M13$518.5M14$433.2M14
Cash & equivalents$2.37M15$20.5M16$36M17$7.63M17$20.4M17
Diluted shares165,966252,8151.8M4.6M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.67
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$936.46

10 shares is a claim on $192.79 of net worth that earned you $6.67 last year, against $936.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 17%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2687% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2687% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 122% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.07M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-003396 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015498 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012456 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016527 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-013743 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012456 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016527 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-013743 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-003396 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015498 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016527 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-013743 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012456 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016527 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-013743 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)