TOP Financial Group Ltd

TOPdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TOP Financial Group Ltd earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.29 and $7.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$8.61M1$9M2$6.4M2$2.87M3$2.93M3
Net income$3.49M4$3.4M5$1.05M5−$5.97M6−$1.17M6
Operating cash flow$1.58M7−$6.03M8$17.8M8−$14.5M9$14M9
Capital expenditure$86,44310$6,06310$3,23411$899,50011
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.12M8$17.8M8−$14.5M9$13.1M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$6.2M12$16M13$25.9M13$12.2M14$13M14
Diluted shares30.0M34.2M32.3M37.0M37.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.54
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $9.16 of net worth that earned you −$0.32 and generated $3.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY22 87%FY23 17%FY24 8%FY25 -17%FY26

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.29 and $7.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.1M
Earnings Power Value
$0.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.05M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.41
Base5.0%$6.63
Bull10.0%$8.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001013762-24-002682 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-075728 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-075954 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001013762-24-002682 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-075728 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-075954 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001013762-24-002682 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-075728 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-075954 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-075728 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-075954 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001013762-24-002682 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-075728 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-075954 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)