MeritValue

TON Strategy Co

TONXdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TON Strategy Co earns about -94% on invested capital, and has bought back 60% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.5M1$8,0002$63,0003$895,0004$12.8M4
Net income−$34.5M5−$37.4M6−$22M7−$10.3M8−$148.5M8
Operating cash flow−$25.9M9−$19.4M9−$8.74M10−$8.77M11−$20.8M11
Capital expenditure$26,00012$20,00013$32,00014$342,00015$88,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$25.9M9−$19.4M9−$8.77M10−$9.11M11−$20.9M11
Total debt$4.18M16$6.82M17$5.83M18——
Cash & equivalents$937,00019$2.43M19—$7.62M20$39.5M20
Diluted shares63.3M2.4M33,995592,47825.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$161.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$59.13
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $161.89 of net worth that earned you −$59.13 and generated −$8.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-94% avg · 5y
FY21 -152%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -99%FY25 -32%

It earned an average -94% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−60% shares · 5y

Share count is down 60% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012571 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012416 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000518 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013931 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012571 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012416 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000518 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013931 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012571 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000518 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013931 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012571 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012416 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000518 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013931 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-008470 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012571 (DebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012416 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012571 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013931 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)