MeritValue

Toll Brothers, Inc.

TOLdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Toll Brothers, Inc. earns about 19% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $139.84 and $194.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.79B1$10.3B2$9.99B3$10.8B3$11B3
Net income$833.6M4$1.29B5$1.37B6$1.57B6$1.35B6
Operating cash flow$1.3B7$986.8M8$1.27B9$1.01B9$1.11B9
Capital expenditure$66.9M10$71.7M11$73M12$73.6M12$86.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.24B7$915.1M8$1.19B9$936.5M9$1.03B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.64B13$1.35B14$1.3B15$1.3B15$1.26B15
Diluted shares125.8M118.0M111.0M104.7M99.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$828.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$134.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$102.85
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $828.9 of net worth that earned you $134.95 and generated $102.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
19% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 21%FY23 20%FY24 20%FY25 16%

It earned about 19% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $139.84 and $194.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$194.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.9%
  • fcfBase$1.03B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$186.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.9%
  • fcfBase$1.03B
Earnings Power Value
$139.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.35B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$158.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $186.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$159.57
Base3.9%$186.7
Bull8.9%$227.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000794170-23-000066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000794170-24-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000794170-25-000112 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000794170-23-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000794170-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000794170-25-000112 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000794170-23-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000794170-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000794170-25-000112 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000794170-23-000066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000794170-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000794170-25-000112 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000794170-23-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000794170-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000794170-25-000112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)