MeritValue

Travel & Leisure Co.

TNLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Travel & Leisure Co. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.9 and $55.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.13B1$3.57B2$3.75B3$3.86B3$4.02B3
Net income$308M4$357M5$396M6$411M6$230M6
Operating cash flow$568M7$442M8$350M9$464M9$640M9
Capital expenditure$57M10$52M11$74M12$81M12$117M12
Free cash flow (derived)$511M7$390M8$276M9$383M9$523M9
Total debt$5.31B13$5.64B14$5.65B15$5.59B16$5.6B17
Cash & equivalents$369M18$550M19$282M20$167M20$253M20
Diluted shares87.3M84.2M75.0M70.7M66.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$146.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$78.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$836.77

10 shares is a claim on −$146.64 of net worth that earned you $34.38 and generated $78.18 of cash last year, against $836.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 12%FY23 13%FY24 12%FY25 9%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.9 and $55.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$383M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$383M
Earnings Power Value
$55.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$357M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.9
Base0.0%$1.9
Bull5.0%$21.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001361658-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001361658-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001361658-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001361658-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001361658-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001361658-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001361658-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001361658-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001361658-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001361658-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001361658-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001361658-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001361658-22-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001361658-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001361658-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001361658-25-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001361658-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001361658-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001361658-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001361658-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)