MeritValue

TEEKAY TANKERS LTD.

TNKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $104.65 and $712.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$542.4M1$1.18B2$1.47B3$1.23B3$951.8M3
Net income−$242.4M4$235.4M5$519.9M6$403.7M6$351.2M6
Operating cash flow−$107.3M7$199.7M8$631.2M9$471.9M9$305.9M9
Capital expenditure$21.4M10$011$012$70.5M12$190.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$128.8M7$199.7M8$631.2M9$401.4M9$115.6M9
Total debt$665.6M13$013———
Cash & equivalents$70.6M14$206.9M15$391.5M15$511.9M15$830.6M15
Diluted shares33.9M34.3M34.6M34.7M34.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$587.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$100.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.25
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $587.66 of net worth that earned you $100.99 and generated $33.25 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 31%FY23 47%FY24 33%FY25 29%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $104.65 and $712.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$712.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$401.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$400.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$401.4M
Earnings Power Value
$104.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$351.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$115.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $400.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$188.81
Base20.0%$400.22
Bull20.0%$400.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011401 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001419945-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001419945-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011401 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001419945-25-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001419945-26-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011401 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001419945-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001419945-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011401 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001419945-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001419945-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-010071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001419945-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001419945-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)