MeritValue

TENNANT CO

TNCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TENNANT CO earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.98 and $105.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.09B1$1.09B2$1.24B3$1.29B3$1.2B3
Net income$64.9M4$66.3M5$109.5M6$83.7M6$43.8M6
Operating cash flow$69.4M7−$25.1M8$188.4M9$89.7M9$65M9
Capital expenditure$19.4M10$25M11$22.8M12$20.9M12$21.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$50M7−$50.1M8$165.6M9$68.8M9$43.3M9
Total debt$271.8M13$305.5M14$207M15$200.8M16$274M17
Cash & equivalents$123.6M18$77.4M19$117.1M19$99.8M19$106.4M19
Diluted shares18.8M18.7M18.8M19.1M18.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$323.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$147.47

10 shares is a claim on $323.79 of net worth that earned you $23.57 and generated $23.3 of cash last year, against $147.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 16%FY24 12%FY25 6%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.98 and $105.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$105.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$68.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$76.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$68.8M
Earnings Power Value
$36.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $76.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.89
Base11.2%$76.2
Bull16.2%$95.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097134-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097134-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097134-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097134-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097134-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097134-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097134-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097134-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097134-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097134-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097134-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097134-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-004272 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097134-23-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097134-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097134-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000097134-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097134-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097134-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)