Tanke Biosciences Corp earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.89 and $4.35 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $20.1M1 | $23.8M2 | $28.6M2 |
| Net income | $2.58M3 | $2.74M4 | −$3.14M5 | −$210,2475 |
| Operating cash flow | — | $4.38M6 | $3.65M7 | −$1.18M7 |
| Capital expenditure | — | $76,0718 | $701,0229 | $856,3619 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | $4.31M6,8 | $2.95M7,9 | −$2.04M7,9 |
| Total debt | — | $1.36M10,11 | $1.41M12 | $2.06M12 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.82M13 | $2.22M14 | $7.7M14 | $6.17M14 |
| Diluted shares | — | 10.8M | 13.1M | 13.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.
10 shares is a claim on $11.82 of net worth that earned you −$0.16 and generated −$1.53 of cash last year, against $1.55 of debt.
It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 24% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 52% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.89 and $4.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period10 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$2.95M
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period5 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$2.95M
assumptions (8)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Normalized earnings$1.19M
- Growth assumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.32 |
| Base | 5.0% | $4.04 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $4.91 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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MeritValue on the App Store →- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (SalesRevenueNet)
- 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001213900-13-001814 (SalesRevenueNet)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2009-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001213900-13-001814 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
- 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001213900-13-001814 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001213900-13-001814 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001213900-13-001814 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K filed 2012-04-16 · period ending 2009-12-31 · accession 0001193805-12-000689 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2010-12-31, 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001213900-13-001814 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)