TOMPKINS FINANCIAL CORP

TMPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TOMPKINS FINANCIAL CORP earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.47 and $91.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$72.6M1$74M2$75M3$79.3M3$75.7M3
Net income$89.3M4$85M5$9.51M6$70.9M6$161.1M6
Operating cash flow$121.2M7$103.3M8$89M9$95M9$38.9M9
Capital expenditure$4.74M10$8.17M11$6.76M12$6.21M12$6.92M12
Free cash flow (derived)$116.4M7$95.2M8$82.2M9$88.8M9$31.9M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$63.1M13$77.8M14$79.5M15$134.4M16$132.8M16
Diluted shares14.6M14.4M14.3M14.3M14.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$654.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$112.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.29
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $654.59 of net worth that earned you $112.36 and generated $22.29 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 19%FY23 13%FY24 40%FY25 42%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.47 and $91.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$85.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$82.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$91.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$82.2M
Earnings Power Value
$61.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$85M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$128.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $91.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$91.23
Base0.0%$91.23
Bull5.0%$111.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001005817-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001005817-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001005817-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001005817-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001005817-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001005817-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001005817-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001005817-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001005817-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001005817-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001005817-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001005817-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001005817-23-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001005817-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001005817-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001005817-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)