MeritValue

THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC.

TMOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $165.27 and $183.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$39.2B1$44.9B2$42.9B3$42.9B3$44.6B3
Net income$7.73B4$6.96B5$6B6$6.34B6$6.7B6
Operating cash flow$9.31B7$9.15B8$8.41B9$8.67B9$7.82B9
Capital expenditure$2.52B10$2.24B11$1.48B12$1.4B12$1.53B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.79B7$6.91B8$6.93B9$7.27B9$6.29B9
Total debt$37.2B13$39.9B14$38.3B15$33.3B16$42.7B16
Cash & equivalents$4.48B17$8.52B18$8.08B19$4.01B20$9.85B20
Diluted shares397.0M394.0M388.0M383.0M378.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,412.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$177.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$166.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,129.76

10 shares is a claim on $1,412.88 of net worth that earned you $177.35 and generated $166.48 of cash last year, against $1,129.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $165.27 and $183.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$165.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$6.93B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$181.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$6.93B
Earnings Power Value
$183.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$237.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $181.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$174.92
Base0.5%$181.27
Bull5.5%$245.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097745-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097745-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097745-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097745-24-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097745-25-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097745-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097745-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097745-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097745-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097745-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097745-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097745-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097745-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097745-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097745-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097745-26-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097745-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097745-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097745-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097745-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)