MeritValue

Taylor Morrison Home Corp

TMHCdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Taylor Morrison Home Corp earns about 16% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $80.52 and $95.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.5B1$8.22B2$7.42B3$8.17B3$8.12B3
Net income$663M4$1.05B5$768.9M6$883.3M6$782.5M6
Operating cash flow$376.6M7$1.11B8$806.2M9$210.1M9$817.3M9
Capital expenditure$21.2M10$30.6M11$33.4M12$36.3M12$40.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$355.4M7$1.08B8$772.7M9$173.7M9$777M9
Total debt$3.3B13$2.48B14$2.02B15$2.12B16$2.29B16
Cash & equivalents$832.8M17$724.5M18$798.6M19$487.2M20$850M20
Diluted shares128.0M116.2M110.1M106.8M100.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$624.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$77.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$227.5

10 shares is a claim on $624.91 of net worth that earned you $77.7 and generated $77.15 of cash last year, against $227.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
16% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 23%FY23 14%FY24 15%FY25 12%

It earned about 16% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $80.52 and $95.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$87.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$772.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$95.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$772.7M
Earnings Power Value
$80.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$782.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$104.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $95.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$95.32
Base0.0%$95.32
Bull5.0%$121.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017842 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006416 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017842 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006416 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017842 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006416 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017842 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006416 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004524 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017842 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006416 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009030 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-004524 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017842 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006416 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)