MeritValue

TransMedics Group, Inc.

TMDXdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TransMedics Group, Inc. earns about -9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.4M1$93.5M2$241.6M3$441.5M3$605.5M3
Net income−$44.2M4−$36.2M5−$25M6$35.5M6$190.3M6
Operating cash flow−$28.9M7−$45.8M8−$13M9$48.8M9$192.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.52M10$11.9M11$151.8M12$129.7M12$59.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$32.4M7−$57.7M8−$164.9M9−$80.9M9$133.6M9
Total debt$35.2M13$58.7M13——$10M14
Cash & equivalents$25.6M15$201.2M15$394.8M15$337.2M16$488.9M16
Diluted shares27.6M29.6M32.5M35.2M40.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$116.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.47

10 shares is a claim on $116.7 of net worth that earned you $46.94 and generated $32.95 of cash last year, against $2.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -65%FY22 -19%FY23 -18%FY24 16%FY25 40%

It earned an average -9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$35.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-008045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029104 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067032 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021155 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021155 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021155 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029104 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004652 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067032 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021155 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067032 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)