MeritValue

TREACE MEDICAL CONCEPTS, INC.

TMCIdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

TREACE MEDICAL CONCEPTS, INC. earns about -49% on equity, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$94.4M1$141.8M2$187.1M3$209.4M3$212.7M3
Net income−$20.6M4−$42.8M5−$49.5M6−$55.7M6−$59M6
Operating cash flow−$17.2M7−$30.6M8−$34.6M9−$37.2M9−$16M9
Capital expenditure$2.71M10$14.8M11$11.5M12$11.6M12$13.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$19.9M7−$45.5M8−$46M9−$48.8M9−$29.5M9
Total debt$58.7M13$105.4M14$106M15$106.6M16$112.9M16
Cash & equivalents$105.8M17$19.5M18$13M19$11.4M20$10.7M20
Diluted shares48.4M55.3M60.9M62.1M63.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.33
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.85

10 shares is a claim on $13.8 of net worth that earned you −$9.33 and generated −$4.66 of cash last year, against $17.85 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-49% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -71%FY23 -36%FY24 -49%FY25 -68%

It earned an average -49% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 92% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021228 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029029 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079167 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021228 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079167 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021228 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079167 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021228 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079167 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006603 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021228 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079167 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021228 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079167 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)