MeritValue

TMC the metals Co Inc.

TMCdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

TMC the metals Co Inc. earns about -413% on equity, but has diluted owners by 88% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$141.3M1−$171M2−$73.8M3−$81.9M4−$319.8M4
Operating cash flow−$56.1M5−$66.6M6−$59.6M7−$43.5M8−$42.9M8
Capital expenditure——$578,0009$515,00010$245,00010
Free cash flow (derived)——−$60.2M7−$44M8−$43.1M8
Total debt———$11.8M11—
Cash & equivalents$84.9M12$46.9M13$6.84M14$3.48M15$117.6M15
Diluted shares204.9M239.9M288.6M321.9M384.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.32
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0.87 of net worth that earned you −$8.32 and generated −$1.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-413% avg · 5y
FY21 -152%FY22 -412%FY23 -676%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -413% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+88% shares · 5y

Share count is up 88% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037110 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-038505 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000516 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037863 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037110 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-038505 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000516 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037863 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000516 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037863 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037863 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-037110 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-038505 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000516 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037863 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)