MeritValue

TOYOTA MOTOR CORP/

TMdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TOYOTA MOTOR CORP/ earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.68 and $57.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2010FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013
Revenue$203.7B1$228.4B2$226.1B3$234.6B4
Net income$2.25B5$4.91B6$3.45B7$10.2B8
Operating cash flow$27.5B9$24.3B10$17.7B11$26.1B12
Capital expenditure$6.5B13$7.57B14$8.8B15$9.09B16
Free cash flow (derived)$21B9$16.8B10$8.87B11$17B12
Total debt$35.3B17$62.8B18$69.9B19$75.7B20
Cash & equivalents$22.4B21$25.3B22$17.9B23$18.3B23
Diluted shares3.14B3.14B3.14B3.17B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$407.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$238.92

10 shares is a claim on $407.83 of net worth that earned you $32.3 and generated $53.61 of cash last year, against $238.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 4y
FY10 2%FY11 2%FY12 2%FY13 5%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 4y

Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 115% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.68 and $57.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$57.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16.8B
Earnings Power Value
$13.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.18B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $57.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$57.54
Base0.0%$57.54
Bull5.0%$75.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-163251 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-191732 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-281223 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2013-03-31 · accession 0001193125-13-268044 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-163251 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-191732 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-281223 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2013-03-31 · accession 0001193125-13-268044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-163251 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-191732 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-281223 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2013-03-31 · accession 0001193125-13-268044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-163251 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-191732 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-281223 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2013-03-31 · accession 0001193125-13-268044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-163251 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-191732 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-281223 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2013-03-31 · accession 0001193125-13-268044 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  21. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-191732 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-12-281223 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2012-03-31 · accession 0001193125-13-268044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)