MeritValue

TILLY'S, INC.

TLYSdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TILLY'S, INC. earns about -9% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$775.7M1$672.3M2$623.1M3$569.5M3$553.6M3
Net income$64.2M4$9.68M5−$34.5M6−$46.2M6−$17.5M6
Operating cash flow$63.4M7−$1.42M8−$6.73M9−$42M9$4.1M9
Capital expenditure$13.4M10$15.1M11$14M12$8.22M12$4.69M12
Free cash flow (derived)$50M7−$16.5M8−$20.7M9−$50.2M9−$589,0009
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$42.2M13$73.5M14$47M15$21.1M16$46.3M16
Diluted shares31.1M30.3M29.8M30.0M30.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.8
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.29 of net worth that earned you −$5.8 and generated −$0.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY22 48%FY23 9%FY24 -21%FY25 -46%FY26 -36%

It earned an average -9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-015839 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-017352 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-024440 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-015839 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-017352 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-024440 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-015839 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-017352 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-024440 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-015839 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-017352 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-024440 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001628280-23-011439 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001628280-24-015839 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-25-017352 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001628280-26-024440 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)