MeritValue

TELOS CORP

TLSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TELOS CORP earns about -62% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.85 and $0.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$242.4M1$216.9M2$145.4M3$108.3M4$164.8M4
Net income−$43.1M5−$53.4M6−$34.4M7−$52.5M8−$36.5M8
Operating cash flow$7.26M9$16.5M10$1.59M11−$25.9M12$30.2M12
Capital expenditure$3.2M13$1.01M14$926,00015$2.25M16$739,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$4.06M9$15.5M10$661,00011−$28.2M12$29.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$126.6M17$119.3M18$99.3M19$54.6M20$53.2M20
Diluted shares66.4M67.6M69.3M71.8M72.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.04
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $13.17 of net worth that earned you −$5.01 and generated $4.04 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-62% avg · 5y
FY21 -62%FY22 -78%FY23 -44%FY24 -57%FY25 -69%

It earned about -62% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.85 and $0.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$661,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$661,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.86
Base0.0%$0.86
Bull5.0%$0.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320121-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320121-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320121-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000320121-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320121-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320121-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320121-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000320121-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320121-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320121-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320121-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000320121-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320121-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320121-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320121-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000320121-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000320121-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000320121-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000320121-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000320121-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)