MeritValue

PERUSAHAAN PERSEROAN PERSERO PT TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK

TLKdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

PERUSAHAAN PERSEROAN PERSERO PT TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA TBK earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.16 and $0.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue—————
Net income$1.5B1$1.75B2$1.33B3$1.59B4$1.47B5
Operating cash flow$4.65B6$4.8B7$4.71B8$3.93B9$3.83B10
Capital expenditure$2.09B11$2.1B12$2.25B13$2.18B14$1.62B15
Free cash flow (derived)$2.56B6$2.7B7$2.46B8$1.75B9$2.21B10
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.45B16$2.46B17$2.08B18$1.8B19$2.11B19
Diluted shares99.06B99.06B99.06B99.06B99.06B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.22
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.89 of net worth that earned you $0.15 and generated $0.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY20 36%FY21 39%FY22 29%FY23 30%FY24 28%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.16 and $0.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.21B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.21B
Earnings Power Value
$0.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.34
Base0.0%$0.34
Bull5.0%$0.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005438 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005696 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005567 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004465 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005643 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005438 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005696 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005567 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004465 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005643 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-21-005438 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005696 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005567 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004465 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005643 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005696 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005567 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004465 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005643 (CashAndCashEquivalents)