MeritValue

TANDY LEATHER FACTORY INC

TLFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TANDY LEATHER FACTORY INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.7 and $13.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$82.7M1$80.3M2$76.2M3$74.4M4$76.3M4
Net income$1.35M5$1.23M6$3.77M7$827,0008$9.1M8
Operating cash flow$3.72M9$1.15M10$4.54M11$4.55M12−$556,00012
Capital expenditure$1M13$635,00014$576,00015$2.98M16$7.54M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.72M9$519,00010$3.96M11$1.57M12−$8.09M12
Total debt$415,00017$017———
Cash & equivalents$10.2M18$7.98M19$12.2M20$13.3M21$16.1M21
Diluted shares8.7M8.4M8.4M8.8M8.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.79
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $63.64 of net worth that earned you $11.01 and generated −$9.79 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 9%FY24 2%FY25 26%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.7 and $13.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.57M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.57M
Earnings Power Value
$1.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.35M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.65
Base20.0%$8.12
Bull20.0%$8.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015325 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014799 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006103 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006550 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015325 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014799 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006103 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006550 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015325 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014799 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006103 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006550 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015325 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014799 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006103 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006550 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015325 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-015325 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014799 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-006550 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)