MeritValue

TIMKEN CO

TKRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TIMKEN CO earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $51.84 and $71.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.13B1$4.5B2$4.77B3$4.57B3$4.58B3
Net income$369.1M4$407.4M5$394.1M6$352.7M6$288.4M6
Operating cash flow$387.3M7$463.8M8$545.2M9$475.7M9$554.3M9
Capital expenditure$148.3M10$178.4M10$187.8M11$170M11$148.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)$239M7$285.4M8$357.4M9$305.7M9$406.1M9
Total debt$2.94B12$3.93B13$5.15B14$4.13B15$3.86B15
Cash & equivalents$257.1M16$331.6M17$418.9M18$373.2M19$364.4M19
Diluted shares77.0M74.3M72.1M70.8M70.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$453.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$549.38

10 shares is a claim on $453.44 of net worth that earned you $41.06 and generated $57.82 of cash last year, against $549.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 8%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 5%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $51.84 and $71.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$71.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$357.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$357.4M
Earnings Power Value
$54.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$369.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$64.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.96
Base7.8%$51.84
Bull12.8%$75.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000098362-24-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000098362-25-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000098362-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000098362-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000098362-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000098362-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000098362-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000098362-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000098362-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000098362-23-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000098362-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000098362-23-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000098362-24-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000098362-25-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000098362-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000098362-23-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000098362-24-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000098362-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000098362-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)