MeritValue

TKO Group Holdings, Inc.

TKOdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. earns about 24% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 134% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.03B1$1.14B2$3.22B3$4.88B3$4.74B3
Net income$273.6M4$389M5−$35.2M6$9.41M6$195.4M6
Operating cash flow$441.2M7$501.7M8$266.2M9$586.1M9$1.29B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$5.52B10$5.47B11$5.52B12$7.52B12
Cash & equivalents$874.7M13$180.6M14$235.8M15$619.8M16$831.1M16
Diluted shares——82.8M171.9M194.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.07
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$387.83

10 shares is a claim on $192.64 of net worth that earned you $10.07 last year, against $387.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 99%FY22 9%FY23 3%FY24 0%FY25 7%

It earned an average 24% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+134% shares · 5y

Share count is up 134% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 36% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$10.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$195.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.3
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000038 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027778 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071651 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000038 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027778 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071651 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027778 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071651 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027778 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071651 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027778 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027778 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071651 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)