MeritValue

Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd.

TKLFdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$243,7591$847,9861$6.01M1$210.1M2$373.2M2
Net income$3.92M3−$8.05M4$7.48M5$6.64M5$716,7305
Operating cash flow−$7.01M6−$25.7M7$1.91M8−$598,7398−$10.3M8
Capital expenditure$3.04M9$934,96010$929,30811$992,06811$313,99511
Free cash flow (derived)−$10M6−$26.7M7$982,6478−$1.59M8−$10.6M8
Total debt$85.5M12$86.9M13$68M14$72.3M15$76.9M15
Cash & equivalents$18.3M16$1.77M16$2.5M17$4.82M18$2.12M18
Diluted shares32.7M36.3M37.3M42.2M42.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.18

10 shares is a claim on $9.7 of net worth that earned you $0.17 and generated −$2.51 of cash last year, against $18.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY23 -3%FY24 9%FY25 4%FY26 2%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.92M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-061842 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-077137 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-061842 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-062769 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-077137 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-061842 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-062769 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-077137 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-061842 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-062769 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-077137 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-23-061340 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-061842 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-062769 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-077137 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001213900-23-061340 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-24-061842 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-077137 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)