TEEKAY CORP LTD

TKdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TEEKAY CORP LTD earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.73 and $283.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$682.5M1$1.19B2$1.46B3$1.22B3$949.5M3
Net income$7.81M4$78.4M5$150.6M6$133.8M6$98.1M6
Operating cash flow$78.1M7$199.2M8$629.8M9$467.2M9$301.8M9
Capital expenditure$21.4M10$011$012$70.5M12$190.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$56.7M7$199.2M8$629.8M9$396.7M9$111.5M9
Total debt$1.37B13$42.4M14$014
Cash & equivalents$109M15$309.9M16$480.1M16$685.3M16$940.7M16
Diluted shares102.1M104.4M96.6M93.3M86.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$249.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.86
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $249.42 of net worth that earned you $11.32 and generated $12.86 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 22%FY23 41%FY24 33%FY25 29%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.73 and $283.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$283.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$396.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$160.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$396.7M
Earnings Power Value
$11.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$98.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $160.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$76.22
Base20.0%$160.01
Bull20.0%$160.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011405 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911971-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911971-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011405 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911971-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911971-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011405 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911971-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911971-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011405 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911971-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000911971-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-010070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011405 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000911971-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000911971-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)