MeritValue

TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/

TJXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/ earns about 91% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.1 and $203.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$48.6B1$49.9B2$54.2B3$56.4B3$60.4B3
Net income$3.28B4$3.5B5$4.47B6$4.86B6$5.49B6
Operating cash flow$3.06B7$4.08B8$6.06B9$6.12B9$6.87B9
Capital expenditure$1.05B10$1.46B11$1.72B12$1.92B12$1.96B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.01B7$2.63B8$4.34B9$4.2B9$4.92B9
Total debt$3.36B13$3.36B14$2.86B15$2.87B16$2.87B16
Cash & equivalents$6.23B17$5.48B18$5.6B19$5.34B20$6.23B20
Diluted shares1.22B1.18B1.16B1.14B1.13B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$90.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.43

10 shares is a claim on $90.34 of net worth that earned you $48.71 and generated $43.59 of cash last year, against $25.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
91% avg · 5y
FY22 108%FY23 84%FY24 99%FY25 83%FY26 81%

It earned about 91% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.1 and $203.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$203.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.2%
  • fcfBase$4.34B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$119.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.2%
  • fcfBase$4.34B
Earnings Power Value
$41.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.47B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $119.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$57.89
Base18.2%$119.7
Bull20.0%$128.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000109198-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000109198-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000109198-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000109198-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000109198-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000109198-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000109198-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000109198-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000109198-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000109198-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000109198-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000109198-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000109198-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000109198-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000109198-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000109198-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000109198-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000109198-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000109198-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000109198-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)