MeritValue

Titan Machinery Inc.

TITNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Titan Machinery Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $30.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.71B1$2.21B2$2.76B3$2.7B2$2.43B3
Net income$66M4$101.9M5$112.4M6−$36.9M6−$54.2M6
Operating cash flow$158.9M7$10.8M8−$32.3M9$70.3M9$137.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$161.3M10$194.4M11$240.2M12$337.4M13$360M13
Cash & equivalents$146.1M14$43.9M15$38.1M15$35.9M15$28.2M15
Diluted shares22.2M22.4M22.5M22.6M22.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$254.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.81
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$158.23

10 shares is a claim on $254.66 of net worth that earned you −$23.81 last year, against $158.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 16%FY23 16%FY24 13%FY25 -4%FY26 -4%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 123% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$30.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001409171-24-000028 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001409171-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022376 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001409171-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001409171-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022376 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001409171-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001409171-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022376 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001409171-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001409171-24-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001409171-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022376 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001409171-22-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022376 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)