TIAN RUIXIANG HOLDINGS LTD

TIRXFdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TIAN RUIXIANG HOLDINGS LTD earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 65% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.86 and $10.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$3.25M1$2.79M2$1.35M3$1.24M3$3.22M3
Net income$634,1034−$1.94M5−$4.68M6−$2.45M6−$3.99M6
Operating cash flow−$48,1697−$1.36M8−$198,7609$994,3049$897,8949
Capital expenditure$3,45710$3,41111$2,34612$012$012
Free cash flow (derived)−$51,6267−$1.37M8−$201,1069$994,3049$897,8949
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$6.14M13$30M14$2,50814$2,38314$297,28814
Diluted shares1.0M344,425518,655633,3361.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$24.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.45
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $205.84 of net worth that earned you −$24.22 and generated $5.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY20 25%FY21 -17%FY22 -11%FY23 -6%FY24 -9%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 5y

Share count is up 65% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.86 and $10.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$897,894
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$897,894
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.97
Base5.0%$9.86
Bull10.0%$12.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-10-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000272 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001410578-24-001091 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-10-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000272 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001410578-24-001091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-10-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000272 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001410578-24-001091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-10-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000272 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001410578-24-001091 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-10-31 · accession 0001410578-24-001091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)