MeritValue

TIPTREE INC.

TIPTdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TIPTREE INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.64 and $62.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$258.6M1$300.2M2$341.4M2$341.5M2$488,0003
Net income$38.1M4−$8.27M5$14M6$53.4M6$34.9M6
Operating cash flow$204.3M7$463.1M8$71.5M9$240.8M9$168.2M9
Capital expenditure$2.76M10$10.7M11$4.1M12$33,00012$012
Free cash flow (derived)$201.6M7$452.3M8$67.4M9$240.7M9$168.2M9
Total debt$393.3M13$259.4M14$402.4M15$427.1M16$72.1M16
Cash & equivalents$175.7M17$538.1M18$468.7M18$19.4M19$30.8M19
Diluted shares33.7M35.5M36.7M36.9M37.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$135.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$19.19

10 shares is a claim on $135.4 of net worth that earned you $9.3 and generated $44.79 of cash last year, against $19.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 35%FY23 -4%FY24 -1%FY25 -6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 82% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.64 and $62.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$58.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$168.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$168.2M
Earnings Power Value
$9.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$34.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.89
Base0.0%$62.89
Bull5.0%$78.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393726-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393726-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001393726-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393726-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393726-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001393726-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393726-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393726-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001393726-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393726-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393726-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001393726-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393726-23-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393726-24-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001393726-25-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001393726-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393726-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393726-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001393726-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)