Instil Bio, Inc.

TILdata completeness 63%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Instil Bio, Inc. earns about -45% on invested capital, and has bought back 94% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$0¹	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$156.8M²	−$223.2M³	−$156.1M⁴	−$74.1M⁵	−$71.4M⁵
Operating cash flow	−$122.1M⁶	−$180.2M⁷	−$82M⁸	−$55.7M⁹	−$36.6M⁹
Capital expenditure	$57.8M¹⁰	$84.6M¹¹	$20.7M¹²	$0¹²	—
Free cash flow (derived)	−$180M⁶	−$264.8M⁷	−$102.7M⁸	−$55.7M⁹	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$37.6M¹³	$43.7M¹⁴	$9.2M¹⁵	$8.81M¹⁶	$6.64M¹⁶
Diluted shares	106.0M	6.5M	6.5M	6.5M	6.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$170.76

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$107.03

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $170.76 of net worth that earned you −$107.03 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-45% avg · 5y

FY21 -24%FY22 -55%FY23 -55%FY24 -36%FY25 -53%

It earned an average -45% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−94% shares · 5y

Share count is down 94% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001789769-22-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001789769-23-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001789769-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789769-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001789769-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001789769-23-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001789769-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789769-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001789769-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001789769-23-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001789769-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789769-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001789769-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001789769-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001789769-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001789769-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)