MeritValue

UP Fintech Holding Ltd

TIGRdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

UP Fintech Holding Ltd earns about 83% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.12 and $17.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$264.5M1$225.4M2$272.5M3$391.5M3$612.1M3
Net income$14.7M4−$2.26M5$33M6$61.4M6$171.5M6
Operating cash flow$413.2M7$258.1M8−$6.57M9$828M9$1.32B9
Capital expenditure$4.97M10$4.89M11$2.76M12$1.55M12$5.48M12
Free cash flow (derived)$408.2M7$253.2M8−$9.33M9$826.4M9$1.31B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$269.1M13$277.7M14$322.6M15$393.6M15$791M15
Diluted shares2.34B2.30B2.43B2.53B2.81B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3.08 of net worth that earned you $0.61 and generated $4.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
83% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 6%FY23 40%FY24 41%FY25 312%

It earned about 83% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.12 and $17.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$826.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$826.4M
Earnings Power Value
$0.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.49
Base20.0%$9.88
Bull20.0%$9.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046209 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056953 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-174855 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046209 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056953 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-174855 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046209 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056953 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-174855 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046209 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056953 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-174855 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-046209 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-056953 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-174855 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)