MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR SA
TIGOdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on fileMILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR SA earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 66% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.51 and $343.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.26B1 | $5.62B2 | $5.66B3 | $5.8B3 | $5.82B3 |
| Net income | $590M4 | $177M5 | −$82M6 | $253M6 | $1.32B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $956M7 | $1.28B8 | $1.22B9 | $1.6B9 | $1.73B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $740M10 | $800M11 | $814M12 | $540M12 | $650M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $216M7 | $484M8 | $409M9 | $1.06B9 | $1.08B9 |
| Total debt | $7.74B13 | $6.8B14 | $6.7B15 | $5.82B16 | $6.89B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $895M17 | $1.04B18 | $775M18 | $699M18 | $1.55B18 |
| Diluted shares | 101.7M | 172.1M | 172.1M | 172.1M | 169.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $215.38 of net worth that earned you $77.87 and generated $64.14 of cash last year, against $407.46 of debt.
It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 66% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.51 and $343.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.06B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$1.06B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$253M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $58.31 |
| Base | 20.0% | $173.51 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $173.51 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010449 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017048 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020831 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010449 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017048 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020831 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010449 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017048 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020831 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010449 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017048 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020831 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005401 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010449 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017048 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020831 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017048 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020831 (CashAndCashEquivalents)