MeritValue

Thryv Holdings, Inc.

THRYdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Thryv Holdings, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.07 and $6.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.11B1$1.2B2$917M3$824.2M3$785M3
Net income$101.6M4$54.3M5−$259.3M6−$74.2M6$307,0006
Operating cash flow$170.6M7$148.6M8$148.2M9$89.8M9$63.5M9
Capital expenditure$26.8M10$29.2M11$33.4M12$33.5M12$32.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$143.7M7$119.3M8$114.8M9$56.2M9$31.1M9
Total debt$1.12B13$939.6M14$697.8M15$568.7M16$507M16
Cash & equivalents$11.3M17$16M18$18.2M19$16.3M20$10.8M20
Diluted shares36.5M36.5M34.7M37.1M44.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$7
Debt you’d be carrying
$113.99

10 shares is a claim on $49.05 of net worth that earned you $0.07 and generated $7 of cash last year, against $113.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 7%FY23 -19%FY24 -7%FY25 1%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.07 and $6.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$56.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$56.2M
Earnings Power Value
$0.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$307,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.91
Base0.0%$6.91
Bull5.0%$11.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556739-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556739-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556739-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556739-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556739-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556739-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556739-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556739-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556739-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556739-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556739-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556739-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556739-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556739-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556739-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001556739-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556739-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556739-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556739-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001556739-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)