MeritValue

Gentherm Inc

THRMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gentherm Inc earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.52 and $21.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.05B1$1.2B2$1.47B3$1.46B3$1.5B3
Net income$93.4M4$24.4M5$40.3M6$64.9M6$18.3M6
Operating cash flow$143.1M7$14.9M8$119.3M9$109.6M9$116.8M9
Capital expenditure$38.5M10$39.7M11$37.6M12$73.3M12$55.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$104.6M7−$24.8M8$81.7M9$36.3M9$61.1M9
Total debt$77.5M13$470.2M14$445.7M15$440.4M16$378.1M16
Cash & equivalents$190.6M17$153.9M18$149.7M19$134.1M20$160.8M20
Diluted shares33.5M33.5M33.1M31.5M30.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$232.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$122.25

10 shares is a claim on $232.87 of net worth that earned you $5.91 and generated $19.76 of cash last year, against $122.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 6%FY25 1%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 388% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.52 and $21.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$21.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61.1M
Earnings Power Value
$13.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $21.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.2
Base0.0%$21.2
Bull5.0%$28.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023344 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059602 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018007 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023344 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059602 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023344 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059602 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023344 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059602 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004405 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023344 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059602 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004405 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023344 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059602 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)