MeritValue

THOR INDUSTRIES INC

THOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

THOR INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $72.63 and $107.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.3B1$16.3B2$11.1B3$10B3$9.58B3
Net income$659.9M4$1.14B5$374.3M6$265.3M6$258.6M6
Operating cash flow$526.5M7$990.1M8$981.6M9$545.5M9$577.9M9
Capital expenditure$131.7M10$240.6M11$208.9M12$139.6M12$121.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$394.8M7$749.6M8$772.7M9$405.9M9$456.3M9
Total debt$3.21B13$3.53B14$2.61B15$2.27B16$1.85B16
Cash & equivalents$445.9M17$311.6M17$441.2M18$501.3M19$586.6M19
Diluted shares55.7M55.3M53.9M53.7M53.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$803.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$345.68

10 shares is a claim on $803.08 of net worth that earned you $48.42 and generated $85.45 of cash last year, against $345.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 18%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $72.63 and $107.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$103.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$456.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$456.3M
Earnings Power Value
$72.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$374.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$93.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$98.51
Base1.6%$107.36
Bull6.6%$138.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000730263-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000730263-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000730263-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000730263-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000730263-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000730263-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000730263-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000730263-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000730263-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000730263-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000730263-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000730263-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000730263-22-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000730263-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000730263-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000730263-25-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000730263-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000730263-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000730263-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)