MeritValue

Target Hospitality Corp.

THdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Target Hospitality Corp. earns about 57% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$214.4M1$333.7M2$365.6M3$265.9M3$274.8M3
Net income−$4.58M4$73.9M5$173.7M6$71.3M6−$37.1M6
Operating cash flow$104.6M7$305.6M8$156.8M9$151.7M9$74.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$341.4M10—$178.1M11$180.3M12—
Cash & equivalents$23.4M13$181.7M14$103.9M15$190.7M16$8.35M16
Diluted shares96.6M100.1M105.3M101.4M99.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.73
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $39.11 of net worth that earned you −$3.73 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
57% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 254%FY23 35%FY24 14%FY25 -10%

It earned an average 57% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 47% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$7.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$71.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003101 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003703 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026351 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003101 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003703 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026351 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003101 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-003403 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003101 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026351 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003440 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003101 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)