MeritValue

TG THERAPEUTICS, INC.

TGTXdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. earns about -101% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.69M1$2.79M2$233.7M3$329M3$616.3M3
Net income−$348.1M4−$223.8M5$12.7M6$23.4M6$447.2M6
Operating cash flow−$295.6M7−$176.2M8−$31.4M9−$40.5M9−$24.8M9
Capital expenditure$401,00010$14,00011$012$45,00012$214,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$296M7−$176.2M8−$31.4M9−$40.6M9−$25M9
Total debt$135.5M13$142.3M14$200.5M15$244.4M16$245.6M16
Cash & equivalents$298.9M17$102.3M18$92.9M19$179.9M19$79.1M19
Diluted shares132.2M135.4M148.5M160.3M161.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.7
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$15.22

10 shares is a claim on $40.15 of net worth that earned you $27.7 and generated −$1.55 of cash last year, against $15.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-101% avg · 5y
FY21 -367%FY22 -171%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 13%

It earned an average -101% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 81% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006144 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005908 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006133 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006144 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005908 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006133 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006144 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006133 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006144 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006133 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002610 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006144 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005908 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006133 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006144 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005908 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006133 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)