MeritValue

TARGET CORP

TGTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TARGET CORP earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $91.07 and $100.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$106B1$109.1B2$107.4B3$106.6B3$104.8B3
Net income$6.95B4$2.78B5$4.14B6$4.09B6$3.71B6
Operating cash flow$8.63B7$4.02B8$8.62B9$7.37B9$6.56B9
Capital expenditure$3.54B10$5.53B11$4.81B12$2.89B12$3.73B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.08B7−$1.51B8$3.82B9$4.48B9$2.84B9
Total debt$11.6B13$14.1B14$14.2B15$13.9B16$14.4B16
Cash & equivalents$5.91B17$2.23B18$3.81B18$4.76B18$5.49B18
Diluted shares492.7M464.7M462.8M461.8M455.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$354.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$81.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$62.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$316.02

10 shares is a claim on $354.81 of net worth that earned you $81.32 and generated $62.23 of cash last year, against $316.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY22 39%FY23 14%FY24 19%FY25 17%FY26 15%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 24% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $91.07 and $100.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$91.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.82B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$100.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.82B
Earnings Power Value
$93.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.09B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$80.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $100.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$100.08
Base0.0%$100.08
Bull5.0%$129.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000027419-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000027419-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000027419-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000027419-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000027419-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000027419-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000027419-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000027419-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000027419-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000027419-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000027419-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000027419-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000027419-23-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000027419-24-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000027419-25-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000027419-26-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000027419-25-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000027419-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)